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WITH the global population predicted to hit close to 10 billion by 2050, and forecasts that agricultural production in some regions will need to nearly double to keep pace, food security is increasingly making headlines. In the UK, it has become a big talking point recently too, for a rather particular reason: Brexit.

Brexit is seen by some as an opportunity to reverse a recent trend towards the UK importing food. The country produces only about 60 per cent of the food it eats, down from almost three-quarters in the late 1980s. A move back to self-sufficiency, the argument goes, would boost the farming industry, political sovereignty and even the nation鈥檚 health. Sounds great 鈥� but how feasible is this vision?

Answering this question in detail could be the subject of an entire PhD. Fortunately, we can get to the crux of the issue with some simple stats. According to from the University of Leeds, UK, 85 per cent of the country鈥檚 total agricultural footprint, in the UK and elsewhere, is associated with meat and dairy production. That supplies 80 per cent of what is consumed, so even covering the whole country in livestock farms wouldn鈥檛 allow us to cover all our meat and dairy needs.

There are many caveats to those figures, but they are still stark. To become much more self-sufficient, the UK would need to drastically reduce its consumption of animal foods, and probably also farm more intensively 鈥� meaning fewer green fields, and more factory-style production.

But switching to a mainly plant-based diet wouldn鈥檛 help. There is a good reason why the UK is dominated by animal husbandry: most of its terrain doesn鈥檛 have the right soil or climate to grow crops on a commercial basis. Just 25 per cent of the country鈥檚 land is suitable for crop-growing, most of which is already occupied by arable fields. Even if we converted all the suitable land to fields of fruit and veg 鈥� which would involve taking out all the nature reserves and evicting thousands of people from their homes 鈥� we would achieve only a 30 per cent boost in crop production.

Just 23 per cent of the fruit and vegetables consumed in the UK are currently home-grown, so even with the most extreme measures we could meet only 30 per cent of our fresh produce needs. That is before we look for the space to grow the grains, sugars, seeds and oils that provide us with the vast bulk of our current calorie intake.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a reason why the UK is dominated by animal husbandry 鈥� most of its land is no good for crops鈥�

Britain鈥檚 reliance on food imports is far from a modern phenomenon, stretching back until at least the mid 1700s, when the population was just a fraction of what it is now. As early as the 1930s, just 30 per cent of the food eaten in the UK was domestically produced.

The fact that number is now so much higher is down to the green revolution of the mid 20th century, in which innovations in agricultural technology caused average crop yields to almost treble. By 1987, the country was 74 per cent self-sufficient. Since then, however, agricultural productivity has stalled, for reasons that aren鈥檛 well understood. With increasing demand from a growing population, self-sufficiency levels have fallen again.

Proponents of UK food self-sufficiency often point to the Netherlands, a country that is the world鈥檚 second-biggest exporter of food, despite having a land area roughly a sixth of the UK鈥檚 and almost twice the population density. But this stat is based on the economic value of the Netherlands鈥檚 agri-food exports, not on the amount of calories the country produces. It includes sales not just of food, but of the sector鈥檚 single biggest export: cut flowers.

In addition, a large part of these exports are foods that were initially imported. The Netherlands is, for example, the world鈥檚 fifth-largest exporter of oranges, despite a distinct lack of Dutch orange groves.

Expressed in terms of calories, not cash, the Netherlands is actually in the bottom 10 for self-sufficiency in the world according to the United Nations, being on a par with countries like Syria, Armenia and Zimbabwe. The Netherlands is a global leader in sustainable agricultural tech, but like the UK, it has to contend with the limitations of geography, climate and population.

Can the UK become less reliant on imports when it comes to food? Probably. Can it become self-sufficient, even in foods typically grown in the country, in the timescales being talked about? To put it bluntly, using current technology, it is a mathematical impossibility.