Science funding is rarely a bad thing, and when it goes towards boosting our knowledge of the greatest threat to humanity, it has to be seen as a positive. So, the 拢81 million slated recently by the UK Advanced Research & Invention Agency to improve understanding of highly dangerous climate 鈥渢ipping points鈥� is most welcome. The manner in which the giveaway is framed, however, really isn鈥檛.
According to the agency, the funding will support the creation of an early-warning system (EWS) that will 鈥渃onfidently predict when a system will tip鈥�, alongside pinning down the timing of the tipping and the consequences.
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This is wrong on so many levels it is hard to know where to begin. For a start, if such an EWS were to work, we would need to be certain that the tipping points in question 鈥� in this case the focus will be primarily on the Greenland ice sheet and the system of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) 鈥� hadn鈥檛 already been crossed. As the minimum global average temperature rise at which either might undergo irreversible change has been , we cannot be sure this is the case.
It could also be argued that there are already early-warning signs for all to see. In the case of the AMOC, this is the 鈥渃old blob鈥� south of Greenland arising from higher ice melt reducing ocean salinity, and elevated temperatures along the eastern seaboard of North America, caused by a backing up of the AMOC as its strength fades. With the Greenland ice sheet, the loss of 6 trillion tonnes of ice since the early 1990s should be enough to drive urgent action without further warning. Even if a climate system hasn鈥檛 yet tipped, by the time enough data is gathered to determine whether or when tipping might happen, it is likely to be too late to stop it.
And there鈥檚 more. Having worked to develop more than one EWS to anticipate and help tackle volcanic crises, I know they are useless on their own. Even if we identify the timing of a tipping point and have better pinned down the consequences, what then? An EWS is only one element of an emergency management plan that must also encompass mitigation (if feasible) and response. For a volcano, this can be building barriers to divert lava flows and evacuation of areas most at risk, followed 鈥� if needs be 鈥� by a general evacuation.
The existence of a tipping point EWS also gives the impression that no action is needed until an alarm sounds, which is short-sighted and dangerous. With climate tipping points, the most critical part of emergency management actually precedes any early warning, as the only really effective mitigation is to prevent tipping. This requires global emissions to be slashed , and even this is no guarantee of keeping the Greenland ice sheet largely intact or the AMOC circulating in a near-normal state. In addition, governments should be making plans now for how society will handle the consequences of tipped climate systems, and for the mayhem that already locked-in climate breakdown is set to bring. This isn鈥檛 happening.
The truth is that a climate EWS has been ringing for decades, and every extreme weather event 鈥� every Los Angeles wildfire, every Valencia deluge 鈥� ratchets up the noise by a few decibels. However, it seems that, despite the constant ringing, we just aren鈥檛 listening. Emissions continue to climb, fossil fuel corporations plan for expansion and governments turn away from green measures.
Maybe the reality of actually crossing a key climate tipping point will be like having a bucket of freezing water poured over our heads and will finally wake us up to what is happening. By then, of course, it will be too late.
Bill McGuire鈥檚 next book,聽The Fate of the World: How our future is聽written in the past, is聽out next year
