IN JUST over a week, the doors will open in Glasgow, UK, on what is arguably one of the most consequential international summits in history. Yet for many people, it remains unclear why COP26, the 26th UN-sponsored “conference of the parties” on climate change, is so crucial. What would a good outcome even be?
It doesn’t help that the UK, the host and diplomatic leader of the summit, which begins on 31 October, seems so muddled in its approach. Its long-delayed announcement this week of major green policies was welcome, but has been tarnished by political infighting over funding that raises old canards pitting the economy against the climate.
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The president of COP26, Alok Sharma, has repeatedly said that its goal is to “keep 1.5°C alive”, a reference to the toughest of the 2015 Paris Agreement’s targets on checking global warming. Perhaps a first step towards public clarity in Glasgow would be to get the politicians to agree unambiguously with what the science says: that to avoid the worst of climate change, limiting warming this century to 1.5°C must be the goal, rather than the current messy twin target of 1.5°C (ideally) and “well below” 2°C (otherwise).
There are many more metrics that could be used to judge a “good” COP: from agreeing a timetable for phasing out fossil fuels, to thrashing out details of a global carbon-trading scheme, to accelerating the process by which nations come up with new, improved emissions-reducing plans.
“Pessimism is the last thing we need right now: COP26 shows the world is at least talking”
What is abundantly clear is that the cuts pledged by countries in the past year in time for Glasgow, as required by the Paris Agreement, leave us far from the 45 per cent reduction in emissions needed by 2030 to hit a 1.5°C path. In fact, they would equate to a 16 per cent rise in emissions.
Faced with the enormity of such figures, it is easy to be downbeat about securing a “good” outcome at the summit. But pessimism is the last thing we need. COP26 shows that the world is at least talking. Perhaps the best, intangible outcome that can be hoped for is a renewed focus on humanity’s common purpose and ability to solve this crisis of its own making by working together.
