CLIMATE change is expected to bring more extreme weather, but at least one region may benefit from fewer storms: the Arctic.
Polar lows, also known as Arctic hurricanes, are weaker than Atlantic hurricanes but are still a hazard for ships and oil platforms. Dozens occur each winter, when the temperature difference between the cold air and warmer sea stirs up convection currents in the lower atmosphere.
, now at the University of Reading, UK, and of the GKSS Research Centre in Geesthacht, Germany, used a computer model to look at what would happen to the frequency of these storms as greenhouse gases rise. They found that by the end of this century, the average number of polar lows will fall to around half the current level (Nature, vol 467, p 309). This is because the atmosphere will warm faster than the sea, so the temperature difference will fall and convection currents dwindle.
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鈥淏y the end of this century, the number of polar lows could have fallen to half the current level鈥�
There is a catch. The model only looked at storm frequency, not severity 鈥� which could increase. If so, fewer but stronger storms could cause more damage overall.
