A simulator showing how outbreaks of avian flu or SARS might spread around the world would be a great help in the struggle to contain such diseases. Such is the vision of researchers at the World 91色情片 Organization, who last week said that to effectively confront emerging infectious diseases they need a massive chunk of computing power.
The global epidemic simulator (GES) would mimic climate simulators, which monitor the movement and behaviour of weather systems. It would record where disease outbreaks occur, where they are heading and, crucially, allow scientists to try out virtual mitigation measures to see which might work best on the ground.
Neil Ferguson, the mathematical biologist who heads the WHO working group on disease modelling, says the idea behind the GES would be to integrate epidemiological and biological models of disease on an unprecedented scale. The aim would be to model the disease status of all 6.6 billion people on the planet. Right now, such models only operate on national levels and do not work for populations over about 300 million. 鈥淓ver-improving hardware, software tools and data availability should let us leap these limitations,鈥� Ferguson says.
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Ideally the system would be connected to local infrastructure and news reports to help spot outbreaks. 鈥淏y monitoring airline and travel ticketing systems, for instance, we could see if people are moving away from an area,鈥� he says. Proposals for the project are with funding bodies, Ferguson says, and no go-ahead has yet been given.
